★65 rare
60%
Return
eSports 2013 Winter Case
77 items in pool
Cost
$12.27
EV
$7.41
Top drop★ Karambit | Fade$1,913
CS2 · Case ROI Calculator
CS2 case ROI calculator
Compare the expected value of a CS2 case’s drops with its case-plus-key cost. Search cases, sort by ROI or expected value and open a card to see every drop with its chance and price.
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Drop odds by rarity
Perfect World, 2017
Mil-Spec79.92%
Restricted15.98%
Classified3.20%
Covert0.64%
★ Rare Special0.26%
42
Cases analysed
60%
Best return per $1
0
Positive EV (ROI > 0)
44%
Avg. return
Heads up
ROI is before selling fees, and a drop without a price adds $0 to expected value. Open a case to see which drops have prices.
42cases match your filters · showing best estimated ROI first
-39.6%
→
−$4.86
★52 rare
59%
Return
Prisma Case
69 items in pool
Cost
$3.45
EV
$2.03
Top drop★ Talon Knife | Doppler — Ruby$822.23
★50 rare
59%
Return
Gamma 2 Case
67 items in pool
Cost
$4.97
EV
$2.92
Top drop★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler — Emerald$1,723
★50 rare
58%
Return
Gamma Case
67 items in pool
Cost
$5.01
EV
$2.92
Top drop★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler — Emerald$1,723
★60 rare
55%
Return
Chroma 2 Case
75 items in pool
Cost
$5.72
EV
$3.17
Top drop★ Karambit | Doppler — Ruby$1,231
★65 rare
54%
Return
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case
78 items in pool
Cost
$5.35
EV
$2.87
Top drop★ Karambit | Fade$1,913
★65 rare
52%
Return
CS:GO Weapon Case 3
77 items in pool
Cost
$13.84
EV
$7.25
Top drop★ Karambit | Fade$1,913
★52 rare
52%
Return
Prisma 2 Case
69 items in pool
Cost
$3.39
EV
$1.77
Top drop★ Talon Knife | Doppler — Ruby$822.23
★60 rare
52%
Return
Spectrum Case
77 items in pool
Cost
$5.55
EV
$2.89
Top drop★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler — Ruby$2,276
★65 rare
52%
Return
CS:GO Weapon Case 2
77 items in pool
Cost
$19.49
EV
$10.1
Top drop★ Karambit | Fade$1,913
★60 rare
52%
Return
Spectrum 2 Case
77 items in pool
Cost
$5.01
EV
$2.58
Top drop★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler — Ruby$2,276
★65 rare
51%
Return
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
79 items in pool
Cost
$6.43
EV
$3.28
Top drop★ Karambit | Fade$1,913
★60 rare
51%
Return
Chroma 3 Case
77 items in pool
Cost
$5.4
EV
$2.73
Top drop★ Karambit | Doppler — Ruby$1,231
★60 rare
50%
Return
Chroma Case
74 items in pool
Cost
$6.51
EV
$3.27
Top drop★ Karambit | Doppler — Ruby$1,231
★24 rare
50%
Return
Glove Case
41 items in pool
Cost
$11.03
EV
$5.51
Top drop★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze$3,964
★13 rare
49%
Return
Operation Wildfire Case
29 items in pool
Cost
$4.81
EV
$2.36
Top drop★ Bowie Knife | Fade$231.67
★65 rare
47%
Return
★24 rare
47%
Return
Operation Hydra Case
41 items in pool
Cost
$26.34
EV
$12.3
Top drop★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze$3,964
★52 rare
46%
Return
Shattered Web Case
69 items in pool
Cost
$6.02
EV
$2.8
Top drop★ Skeleton Knife | Fade$485.01
★52 rare
46%
Return
Horizon Case
69 items in pool
Cost
$3.63
EV
$1.65
Top drop★ Talon Knife | Fade$777.43
★50 rare
45%
Return
Dreams & Nightmares Case
67 items in pool
Cost
$3.3
EV
$1.5
Top drop★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler — Emerald$1,631
★50 rare
45%
Return
Operation Riptide Case
67 items in pool
Cost
$8.52
EV
$3.81
Top drop★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler — Emerald$1,631
★13 rare
45%
Return
Falchion Case
29 items in pool
Cost
$3.74
EV
$1.67
Top drop★ Falchion Knife | Fade$245.18
★13 rare
44%
Return
Operation Breakout Weapon Case
27 items in pool
Cost
$9.13
EV
$4.04
Top drop★ Butterfly Knife | Fade$2,105
Compare a case before interpreting its ROI
The list covers weapon cases with known contents, a positive expected value and a known opening cost. Souvenir packages, sticker capsules and terminals follow their own rules and are left out.
- Search for the case name. Default sorting ranks expected ROI; other options are expected profit, expected value, opening cost and name.
- Open its card and compare Case price, Key price, Total cost and Expected value. Expected profit is a statistical average before selling fees.
- Inspect the drops and rarity distribution. A drop without a price shows a dash and adds $0 to expected value.
- Check the case and drop prices on a marketplace. Calculate selling costs separately before comparing an opening with buying a desired skin directly.
Positive EV only shows cases with ROI above 0% before fees. Has rare items shows cases with a knife or glove drop.
ROI is different from return per dollar
Expected value (EV) adds each drop’s price multiplied by its probability. Total cost is case price plus key price. Expected profit is EV minus total cost; ROI is expected profit ÷ total cost × 100.
Return per dollar uses EV ÷ total cost × 100 instead. A 60% return means −40% ROI, not a 60% profit.
| Metric | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Opening cost | $0.51 + $2.49 | $3.00 |
| Expected value | Sum of probability × drop price | $1.80 |
| Expected profit before fees | $1.80 − $3.00 | −$1.20 |
| ROI | −$1.20 ÷ $3.00 × 100 | −40% |
| Return per dollar | $1.80 ÷ $3.00 × 100 | 60% |
| EV after a uniform 8% selling fee | $1.80 × 0.92 | $1.656 |
| ROI after that fee | ($1.656 − $3.00) ÷ $3.00 × 100 | −44.8% |
The last two rows add an example 8% selling fee by hand; the calculator itself shows ROI before fees.
How the ROI is calculated
Drop odds, wear weights, the key price and how each drop is priced are explained on our methodology page.
Opening, holding and buying a skin
Each opening gives one random item. Expected value is the average over many openings, and your own results will spread around it. A case with negative expected value loses money on average, even though a valuable drop is possible.
Holding a case keeps a market position whose value may rise or fall. Opening spends the case and key for a random result. Buying a specific skin gives the selected item at a known purchase price. Use the portfolio tracker for holdings and the price table for a direct purchase comparison.
Check case and drop prices
Compare the case price and its most valuable drops on these marketplaces, including selling fees, before you open or sell.